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If I Were a Realtor
If a critical mass of them moved on, I'd stop visiting it but it would have to be a large number. Like Twitter, unless you're someone who gets extremely frustrated with incompetent design, I think most people can get over some minor quirks in an application/website/network if that is where their social network is located.
I'm hoping to be the human bridge that moves some people over to federated microblogging sites (of which Identi.ca is the most popular at the moment).
I don't really use the "social" aspect of Delicious, so none of those features would really draw me in.
If a service with better openness supports the service with all the people, then there's no reason to simply stay with the service with all the people (only) because you get both by going with the better feature service.
Proof of concept, Apple supports Windows (through VM Ware, Parallels, and now their new "we'll move your files over for you" campaign). Winner? Apple. Windows stays in their own little game and tries to keep people, rather than reaching out and helping people use/move what they already own. Not an exact metaphor, but you get the idea.
Interestingly, when the site first started, they had celebrity bookmarkers like Alton Brown (http://ma.gnolia.com/people/AltonBrown) and Ted Allen (http://ma.gnolia.com/people/TedAllen). I thought the site was going to emphasize the social aspect more, but they've moved away from it, IMO.
Just so you know, I'm just the community consultant on this. Larry and Todd (who couldn't make it to Gnomedex) have been working long and hard on this. I had dinner with Larry a few weeks ago who showed me what they've done and I got so excited I convinced him to come announce it at Gnomedex. :)
What I've noticed here in the Portland Twitter/Tech/Creative community is that we have a lot of connections, and several infovores, but we lack salespeople. In fact, I believe this is what socialnetorking in general is missing - salespeople, vision casters, promoters, etc.
We early adopters are growing bored with the lack of growth in Web2.0, however, the majority of the human race doesn't even know the beauty of these tools. What we have is great - connected information, however, we need to promote this to more people.
Once this takes off with the general population, it will no longer be a zero-sum game. There is plenty of room for more products.
If the 'newer' tool doesn’t do something better or more intuitively it's hard to make a case to move ... especially if you have been using something for a long time and it meets your needs.
Change for the better (i.e. 'tagging' vs. folders) will generally take time ... and there will be a lot of late adopters, but if the tool is good the humans will come.
By the way, Nate, Ma.gnolia *will* import your existing Delicious collection.
For a bookmark tool, although the social piece is there it isn't as critical. As long as I can link it into an aggregator (like friendfeed) or find a useful way to share the updates I can make the information be where the people I care about are.
That said, the open features are great for new adapters and will get some people joining them from other services, but what would really move me - in addition to features that would make it better - is an easy way to get my data over to it without having to do the work. I use delicious because that's what I started using and it works for me and it is easy to get the bookmarks in. To move - show me it gives me more and don't make me work to get my information together again.
So who's there is a piece, but less so than some other services, and this is in part because of agreggators like friendfeed (or even jaiku).
But more important is Tina's description of you Chris, and me, and others as "you web-savvy people." Tina, the fact you are posting a comment on a blog implies you are also web-savvy, so what am I again? I'm no different than you, seeking a user-friendly service or tool that can help me succeed.
I agree with Jim that it's an untapped business opportunity.
Chris Brogan, in his recent Sky News video interview, talks about the progression from bullhorn to party hat as a means of explaining the progression from so-called Web 1.0 marketing to social media and personal branding. I recently shared this analogy with my mom and she got it. Thanks, Chris!
In my own way, on my own blog, I try to open up the world's eyes and ears as to what "all of this" is all about and what it means. But like you, I learn a new thing every day... and you've reminded me of the world needing more cowbell to continue amplifying Magnolia, Twitter, FriendFeed, Firefox, and everything else that a lot of people may have heard of, may not have heard of, but ought to know the value of.
Your mom is exactly the kind of person I was talking about, and thanks for the reminder of "more cowbell" I loved watching the skit again on Youtube.
There are so many more people who would benefit from using more social networking, if it were more widely available and made easier to learn. Twitter might sound easy to all of you, but it's difficult to figure out the inside information if you're not steeped in this stuff.
I do think there's money to be made in creating an easy-to-use portal with step-by-step instructions in plain English.