Hi Chris, So glad to find your writing again! I know you've been busy & Utterz has allowed you to keep blogging in a new way, but reading is comforting.
Considering that I've taken a job as Comm. Mgr that didn't exist 2 yrs ago is a bit frightening. So the position's future in five years is a big question. But it's also exciting to be a part of this trend & assisting customers in their groundswell. The evolution of this new form of marketing will be quite interesting.
I agree with many of your ideas on technology. It will continue to enmesh itself into our lives.
Chris Parandian
· 2 years ago
Carriers are absolutely at a fork in the road. I am hopeful that they will choose to "figure it out" and collaborate with others in order to be in nysc with us... The future is bright...
Merlene
· 2 years ago
I'm looking forward to seeing what the next 5 years brings.
I know that already I'm frustrated by limitations in my devices. Why is it so hard to sync my Palm, my cell, my computer and my Google Calendar? Why is it so hard to sync my contacts across multiple devices and platforms? I know there are solutions but they haven't hit the mainstream yet.
I'm still frustrated that my son's school doesn't allow email back and forth? Oh he forgot to bring in the essay due today? No problem I'll email it. Seems simple but still not there yet.
It's happening too fast for some and too slow for me :)
Do You KNOW Clarence?
· 2 years ago
It's interesting that you bring up the mix of "communication" across multiple platforms -- I've recently been experimenting with that concept in terms of daily communication. It comes easily and without thought -- I get a DM on Twitter, respond via email on Facebook, etc, etc.
Knowing a lot of different people on multiple platforms makes this feasible in a way, since many of them are on the same networks I am, and others are exclusively on one or the other (my communication reaches everyone, no matter their scenario). Those who span multiple platforms can experience the outreach in many ways.
Shout-out! for picking up on that trend.
BarbaraKB
· 2 years ago
Great write up here, Chris, per usual. Here are my "off the top o' my head" thoughts:
MSM is waking up and advertising dollars have shifted to the Web. All are adapting to the new online world. Old ways are fading but new not necessarily owned and controlled by new. It will be a mix of old and new. Content is King is now decided by the individuals but it still needs to be good content. Telcoms and Cable are waking up, IMHO. The battle for distribution over the net is *not* set.
Also, each individual will have their own web presence. Like the cell phone number of today it will be "what's your web site" instead of "what's your cell phone number?" Easier to remember name: BarbaraKB than my cell phone number.
Peace.
Markus Tressl
· 2 years ago
Awesome article Chris, thanks a lot for your thoughts!
I think in 5 years from now we will have free WiFi everywhere, devices like mobile phones will no longer be but will be some smart mini device like camera, phone, GPS and PDA/smartphone in one.
Computers/laptops will still be there, Apple and Linux will be 50% of the market, the other 50% will be mostly Windows. And Google will be the biggest and most influential media company.
Steven Hodson
· 2 years ago
Chris,
I honestly don't believe we can even come close to prognosticating as to what the computing landscape - both online and offline - will look like in 5 years. We are having a hard enough time even looking a year down the road.
Who would have thought a year ago that Facebook would have risen above college hijinks to become the threat to Google that it is. Who would have thought two years ago athat a simple web app that asked "What are you doing" would become a growing social communication tool with an ever increasing 3rd party client developer following.
Who would have thought a year ago that terrabyte harddrive could become commonplace as they nearly are. Who would have thought that broadband providers would be traffic shaping and fighting over the auction rules for the 700Mhz band.
Who would have thought even a few years ago that Apple would be gaining serious traction once again in the PC market or that Microsoft would become a prime visible sponsor of a podcamp.
In some cases it is even hard to tell what will be happening tomorrow let alone next week ... 5 years down the road .... that could be a whole new century in the tech world.
LinksMonkey
· 2 years ago
I think that Wiki technologies will become more commonplace.
I hope that the attempts to make software pay-per-use dies a quick death.
And someone will bring out a product/service that will make the rest of us slap ourselves on the forehead & say, "Why didn't I think of that?".
Jane Quigley
· 2 years ago
I think the telcos/cablecos Could figure it out - but (agreeing with Jeff) they won't. I think they simply aren't interested - but will be when it's too late.
I'm loving watching how the sector is progressing - this morning I took a walk, answering Twitters, thought about Uttering, watched @pistchio's YouTube update vid (made me laugh out loud) and quickly send a couple of Facebook video replies to questions from my team (I can't wait to try Seesmic!).
We're no longer barreling to the future - it's here. Now comes the deeper development that ensures mass penetration. I think that we'll stop thinking of the tools and it'll all be communication (vids to friends and clients, voice posts and project blogs).
Glad to have you back - you were missed!
Annie Boccio
· 2 years ago
The biggest complaint I hear from my friends, my parents, and my kids- three generations- is that it's too time and energy consuming to keep up with all the different social networking technologies. Everything has to be simplified for the typical consumer to be bothered.
I think the social networks that succeed over the next five years will be the ones that are good at working with each other to make things easier. One login for everything. One ID that lets people contact each other.
But some of those same people who complain that it's too complicated are also concerned about maintaining privacy, and what they see as emerging monopolies like Google. Mostly people my age and older, though, so I don't think that privacy issues will be a huge roadblock overall.
jonnygoldstein
· 2 years ago
We'll be able to manifest communications across different media types (audio, text, video) wirelessly, mobile-ly, seamlessly. Won't have to push buttons---Will be able to control computation with voice. More "Intelligent" voice interfaces.
Social networks meet AI meet media.
Fun!
Michael Bailey
· 2 years ago
Chris,
Thanks for getting my thought processes happening today, I had began my response here, but it grew so large that I decided to make a blog post out of it.
I do think the future is going to be about people untethering with their media consumption, the same way we've moved away from rotary phones with the ubiqitous curly chords.
john blue
· 2 years ago
this video came out a few years ago , looking at 2014. It has some this in it that are already happening and afew things that are very possible. enjoy :)
future history of the media by Robin Sloan and Matt Thompson, with music by Aaron McLeran.
I agree with you on the whole email as phone number thing. Who types in a web site IP address? We all use the alpha characters. I don't even know my wife's phone number - I dial her name in my contact list.
I too use Google Apps - about 99% of the time. There are rare occasions when I need the formatting power of Word or Power Point offline.
I think the biggest trend in 5 years is devises will become pervasive. We won't realize where our content is coming from. We will turn on our radio and it will be our favorite talkshow. It may come from a radio tower - satalite - or WiFi - and it won't matter. Only the content will matter.
Dan Schawbel
· 2 years ago
Chris, you obviously put a lot of thought into this. It's hard to say what will happen, but changing people's behaviors will be difficult.
Geoff Livingston
· 2 years ago
I see virtual worlds taking on a much larger role within social media. We need smoother, more liquid interfaces for this to happen. This in turn requires more bandwidth, better interface technologies and computing power on the average desktop. All three are highly likely in the next five years.
Dale Cruse
· 2 years ago
Due to ubiquity, in the future we will finally drop the "e" and "i" prefixes. "Ecommerce" will just be "commerce." The "iPhone" will just be a phone.
Matthew Cornell
· 2 years ago
I'm always impressed and a little mystified by people like you, Chris, who can predict future trends. Oh, it's not predicting the future, but I think it's cool.
I've started collecting trend-watching (and predicting) tips, and I'll share a few, FYI. Maybe it'll kick off some thinking.
From "The 80-20 Principle":
o Spot when things are in the tipping point, 1/2 way between two equally-balanced entities, for example. Koch gives historical examples like search engines (Google won) or music players (iPod won).
o All the big breakthroughs were based on predicting what customers will *need*, not what they're following.
o Identify any market or any sphere or activity where there's room for 20% of work generating 80% of the profit. What are the majority doing wrong and the minority doing right?
1) We'll be talking about a company with a Facebook-size valuation that doesn't exist today.
2) The technology and infrastructure will get more complex, but the interface to the user will get simpler.
3) The word "television" will sound oh so quaint.
$) For most, interactions with a newpspaer won't involve paper.
Dave LaMorte
· 2 years ago
5 years from now I would like to have a job.
Amie Gillingham
· 2 years ago
Dave LaMorte said:
"5 years from now I would like to have a job."
So say we all!
john blue
· 2 years ago
Chris opens the post with "Imagine what will happen in five years, especially with regards to technology and social media." Most of us equate technology to information or computing technology.
To provide different perspective, the week before last was the National FFA Convention (podcast and media at http://www.ffa.org/ffashow/). While this is a very USA centric convention, there were several sessions and discussions on what will face collage graduate in ag in the next 2 to 5 years=> food, fuel, and water on a global scale. All of these have a impact on our lives and many technical solution will be put out there.
Just think what $5+ gas will do to your in person social network if that network is not local. Could energy prices make electronic social network tools more valuable? You might be able to "green" Facebook by saying you're having a conversation without buying fuel...
Coming soon: "Green" web sites=> "By using Facebook to connect with friends, associates, and business partners, you are saving XXXX carbon credits"
Or, like Google has a running gmail "Lots of space" meter, there could be a carbon credits meter on social networks (hahahhaha).
jon burg
· 2 years ago
The future is going to be about flexibility. Flexibility requires commonality, standards, portability and cross-platform integrity.
Once standards and wrappers arise (think RSS), we can begin to innovate. Those that don't accept the wrappers will die (Sony and the mp3 format). Those that embrace these formats in exceptional ways, those that create enhanced function based on superior form and design, these will be our leaders.
The 80s was about the hardware.
The 90s were about the interface.
The 00s will be about fusion.
jon burg
· 2 years ago
The future is going to be about flexibility. Flexibility requires commonality, standards, portability and cross-platform integrity.
Once standards and wrappers arise (think RSS), we can begin to innovate. Those that don't accept the wrappers will die (Sony and the mp3 format). Those that embrace these formats in exceptional ways, those that create enhanced function based on superior form and design, these will be our leaders. ___________________
All Comments
So glad to find your writing again! I know you've been busy & Utterz has allowed you to keep blogging in a new way, but reading is comforting.
Considering that I've taken a job as Comm. Mgr that didn't exist 2 yrs ago is a bit frightening. So the position's future in five years is a big question. But it's also exciting to be a part of this trend & assisting customers in their groundswell. The evolution of this new form of marketing will be quite interesting.
I agree with many of your ideas on technology. It will continue to enmesh itself into our lives.
I know that already I'm frustrated by limitations in my devices. Why is it so hard to sync my Palm, my cell, my computer and my Google Calendar? Why is it so hard to sync my contacts across multiple devices and platforms? I know there are solutions but they haven't hit the mainstream yet.
I'm still frustrated that my son's school doesn't allow email back and forth? Oh he forgot to bring in the essay due today? No problem I'll email it. Seems simple but still not there yet.
It's happening too fast for some and too slow for me :)
Knowing a lot of different people on multiple platforms makes this feasible in a way, since many of them are on the same networks I am, and others are exclusively on one or the other (my communication reaches everyone, no matter their scenario). Those who span multiple platforms can experience the outreach in many ways.
Shout-out! for picking up on that trend.
MSM is waking up and advertising dollars have shifted to the Web. All are adapting to the new online world. Old ways are fading but new not necessarily owned and controlled by new. It will be a mix of old and new. Content is King is now decided by the individuals but it still needs to be good content. Telcoms and Cable are waking up, IMHO. The battle for distribution over the net is *not* set.
Also, each individual will have their own web presence. Like the cell phone number of today it will be "what's your web site" instead of "what's your cell phone number?" Easier to remember name: BarbaraKB than my cell phone number.
Peace.
thanks a lot for your thoughts!
I think in 5 years from now we will have free WiFi everywhere, devices like mobile phones will no longer be but will be some smart mini device like camera, phone, GPS and PDA/smartphone in one.
Computers/laptops will still be there, Apple and Linux will be 50% of the market, the other 50% will be mostly Windows. And Google will be the biggest and most influential media company.
I honestly don't believe we can even come close to prognosticating as to what the computing landscape - both online and offline - will look like in 5 years. We are having a hard enough time even looking a year down the road.
Who would have thought a year ago that Facebook would have risen above college hijinks to become the threat to Google that it is. Who would have thought two years ago athat a simple web app that asked "What are you doing" would become a growing social communication tool with an ever increasing 3rd party client developer following.
Who would have thought a year ago that terrabyte harddrive could become commonplace as they nearly are. Who would have thought that broadband providers would be traffic shaping and fighting over the auction rules for the 700Mhz band.
Who would have thought even a few years ago that Apple would be gaining serious traction once again in the PC market or that Microsoft would become a prime visible sponsor of a podcamp.
In some cases it is even hard to tell what will be happening tomorrow let alone next week ... 5 years down the road .... that could be a whole new century in the tech world.
I hope that the attempts to make software pay-per-use dies a quick death.
And someone will bring out a product/service that will make the rest of us slap ourselves on the forehead & say, "Why didn't I think of that?".
I'm loving watching how the sector is progressing - this morning I took a walk, answering Twitters, thought about Uttering, watched @pistchio's YouTube update vid (made me laugh out loud) and quickly send a couple of Facebook video replies to questions from my team (I can't wait to try Seesmic!).
We're no longer barreling to the future - it's here. Now comes the deeper development that ensures mass penetration. I think that we'll stop thinking of the tools and it'll all be communication (vids to friends and clients, voice posts and project blogs).
Glad to have you back - you were missed!
I think the social networks that succeed over the next five years will be the ones that are good at working with each other to make things easier. One login for everything. One ID that lets people contact each other.
But some of those same people who complain that it's too complicated are also concerned about maintaining privacy, and what they see as emerging monopolies like Google. Mostly people my age and older, though, so I don't think that privacy issues will be a huge roadblock overall.
Social networks meet AI meet media.
Fun!
Thanks for getting my thought processes happening today, I had began my response here, but it grew so large that I decided to make a blog post out of it.
http://www.mobasoft.com/wordpress/?p=160
future history of the media by Robin Sloan and Matt Thompson, with music by Aaron McLeran.
http://mccd.udc.es/orihuela/epic/
I agree with you on the whole email as phone number thing. Who types in a web site IP address? We all use the alpha characters. I don't even know my wife's phone number - I dial her name in my contact list.
I too use Google Apps - about 99% of the time. There are rare occasions when I need the formatting power of Word or Power Point offline.
I think the biggest trend in 5 years is devises will become pervasive. We won't realize where our content is coming from. We will turn on our radio and it will be our favorite talkshow. It may come from a radio tower - satalite - or WiFi - and it won't matter. Only the content will matter.
I've started collecting trend-watching (and predicting) tips, and I'll share a few, FYI. Maybe it'll kick off some thinking.
From "The 80-20 Principle":
o Spot when things are in the tipping point, 1/2 way between two equally-balanced entities, for example. Koch gives historical examples like search engines (Google won) or music players (iPod won).
o All the big breakthroughs were based on
predicting what customers will *need*, not what they're following.
o Identify any market or any sphere or activity where there's room for 20% of work generating 80% of the profit. What are the majority doing wrong and the minority doing right?
Also, a few interesting examples here: Five Essential Online Trends for Small Businesses
http://www.smallbiztrends.com/2007/09/five-esse...
Cheers!
1) We'll be talking about a company with a Facebook-size valuation that doesn't exist today.
2) The technology and infrastructure will get more complex, but the interface to the user will get simpler.
3) The word "television" will sound oh so quaint.
$) For most, interactions with a newpspaer won't involve paper.
"5 years from now I would like to have a job."
So say we all!
To provide different perspective, the week before last was the National FFA Convention (podcast and media at http://www.ffa.org/ffashow/). While this is a very USA centric convention, there were several sessions and discussions on what will face collage graduate in ag in the next 2 to 5 years=> food, fuel, and water on a global scale. All of these have a impact on our lives and many technical solution will be put out there.
Just think what $5+ gas will do to your in person social network if that network is not local. Could energy prices make electronic social network tools more valuable? You might be able to "green" Facebook by saying you're having a conversation without buying fuel...
Coming soon: "Green" web sites=> "By using Facebook to connect with friends, associates, and business partners, you are saving XXXX carbon credits"
Or, like Google has a running gmail "Lots of space" meter, there could be a carbon credits meter on social networks (hahahhaha).
Once standards and wrappers arise (think RSS), we can begin to innovate. Those that don't accept the wrappers will die (Sony and the mp3 format). Those that embrace these formats in exceptional ways, those that create enhanced function based on superior form and design, these will be our leaders.
The 80s was about the hardware.
The 90s were about the interface.
The 00s will be about fusion.
Once standards and wrappers arise (think RSS), we can begin to innovate. Those that don't accept the wrappers will die (Sony and the mp3 format). Those that embrace these formats in exceptional ways, those that create enhanced function based on superior form and design, these will be our leaders.
___________________
The 80s was about the hardware.
The 90s were about the interface.
The 00s will be about fusion.
1snkrwex9byo6dmw
good luck
1snkrwex9byo6dmw
good luck